Why Every Retiree Needs a War Chest
Murphy’s Law is the adage that “Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong,” and usually at the worst possible time.
There’s a retirement version of this, too: “The day you retire, the market will drop 20–30%.”
It’s not always literally true, but ask anyone who retired in 2000, 2008, or early 2022, and they’ll tell you that it sure felt like it. After decades of saving, the moment you finally start spending, the markets seem to turn against you.
That fear is real. But instead of trying to time the market (which no one can), the solution is to prepare for downturns with what we call a retirement war chest.
What is a War Chest?
A war chest is a 5–7 year bucket of cash and bonds that you maintain throughout retirement.
Think of it as a self-funded pension. No matter what the stock market does, you know you can cover your expenses for the next several years.
Why 5-7 years? History shows that’s usually enough time for markets to recover from even the worst downturns.
Take 2008. The S&P 500 lost nearly 37% that year. Painful. But what if you had 5 years of living expenses set aside in cash and bonds? You wouldn’t have been forced to sell stocks at the bottom.
By 2012, were we out of it? Yes… for the most part. While the market didn’t reach its pre-crash peak until early 2013, by 2012 the S&P 500 had climbed back significantly. In fact, from the March 2009 bottom through 2012, the S&P 500 gained over 100%.
In other words, by 2012, we were through the thick of it. A retiree with a war chest could have safely lived off that bucket while letting their stock portfolio heal.
Here’s a 5-year chart from that time period from Bloomberg as a reference:

So, how do you build a War Chest?
- Figure out your spending needs
Example: $100,000 per year - Multiply by 5-7 years
That means setting aside $500,000-$700,000 in a mix of cash, CDs, and bonds - Keep the rest invested for growth
Your remaining portfolio stays in the stock market, giving you the growth needed for a decades-long retirement - Replenish as you go
In good years, refill the war chest by trimming gains from your stock portfolio. In bad years, let the bucket carry you until the markets recover.
The Psychology Bonus
This isn’t just about numbers, it’s about peace of mind. When you know your next 5–7 years of income are covered, market downturns feel less scary. You don’t feel forced to sell at the wrong time. You don’t panic. And you give your long-term investments the time they need to bounce back.
The Bottom Line
You don’t need to predict when the next downturn will happen. You need to be prepared for it. By building and maintaining a 5–7 year war chest, you can retire confidently—even if Murphy’s Law shows up on your first day of retirement.
The goal isn’t just financial security. It’s peace of mind so you can stop worrying about market headlines and start enjoying the retirement you’ve worked so hard to create.
Ready to build your War Chest?
No portion of this commentary is to be construed as the provision of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Please consult with the appropriate professionals for advice that is specific to your situation. Note Advisors, LLC can assist in determining a suitable investment approach for a given individual, which may or may not closely resemble the strategies outlined herein.











